Learning Goal: I’m working on a business question and need an explanation and answer to help me learn.Get data on a stochastic random variable (It can be what you have on your sheet if it is correct, meaning it is truly a stochastic variable and not deterministic) and answer the following questions.What is the variable, briefly describe it.Prepare a time series plot of the data. Based on this graph, do you think there is a trend in the data? Explain.Look at the autocorrelation structure. Describe the critical values. Explain what these results tell you about the trending data.Based on what you found in parts 2 and 3, suggest a forecasting method you think might be appropriate for this series.Collect the quarterly data on the State Tax Collections: T10 Alcoholic Beverages Sales Tax for the state assigned to you on the sheet (Column CI):Prepare a time series plot of this series. Describe what you see in this plot in terms of trend and seasonality.Calculate and plot the first 4 autocorrelation coefficients. What does this autocorrelation structure suggest about the trend?If there is a trend, D trend the data by calculating the first difference.Calculate and plot the first four. Autocorrelation coefficient for the first difference, only if you made one.If you look at some data, and the series only fluctuates about an average with no trend and no seasonality, which form of smoothing would you employ? If the data. Includes all of these components which form of smoothing would you employ? How should the correct smoothing factors be chosen? Answer this in your own words. feel free to use examples to answer this.For the DOW company you’re following on the sheet,Prepare a time series plot of the sales data, and visually inspect the plot to determine the characteristics you see in this series.Use a smoothing model to develop a forecast of sales. For the next quarter and explain why you selected that model. Plot the actual and forecast values. Determine the RMSE for your model during the historical period.Copy and paste the results to your estimates in column CC ( Gompertz model and logistic curves) show the data and output. Write down what you estimated and the idea behind it and what parameters used. Do not copy and example from image somewhere, these must have been estimated by you.
